National Football League

Betting action report: Bettors all in on Cowboys, sharps on Eagles to cover

Updated Sep. 28, 2023 7:02 p.m. ET

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Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

These past few weeks, the betting universe has revolved much more around college football odds than NFL odds. 

Specifically, it’s been all about odds on Coach Prime’s Colorado Buffaloes.

But it’s time to give the professional ranks their due, because there’s a fascinating matchup on the NFL Week 4 oddsboard: The insanely high-scoring Miami Dolphins travel to face the Buffalo Bills.

Don’t fret, though. We won’t overlook what’s happening on campus, as we dive into this week’s NFL and college football betting nuggets.

Show Me the Moneyline

In Week 3, Tua Tagovailoa and his Dolphins took the Denver Broncos to the metaphorical woodshed. Miami hung 10 touchdowns on Denver — five in each half — in a 70-20 wipeout.

Chris Fargis, senior director of trading risk for Fanatics Sportsbook, said recency bias is definitely on full display for the Dolphins, especially at a plus-money price on the moneyline.

"In the early action, 86% of moneyline handle is on the Dolphins here, around +125," Fargis said. "Customers saw the Fins put up a 70-burger last week and think they can keep it going on the road in Buffalo."

While public/recreational bettors hit the Dolphins — on the spread and moneyline — the short home favorite is taking some professional money. Craig Pullen, vice president of trading for Caesars Sports, said sharp play showed up on Bills -2.5.

Speaking of which …

The Sharp Side

Professional bettor Randy McKay will partake in the biggest game in the NFL Week 4 odds market. He’s on Buffalo -2.5, liking the Bills under a field goal at home.

"I'll side with a team with better defense here. I'll trust [coach] Sean McDermott to make the adjustments to stop Miami’s offense," McKay said.

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Other plays McKay made this week:

• Jaguars -3 vs. Falcons: It’s Jacksonville’s annual sojourn across the pond, which factored into McKay’s thinking. "I bet the Jags -2.5. The game is in London. They know the travel, whereas Atlanta will be in its second straight road game."
• Packers +2 vs. Lions: "I trust the better organization here to be ready to play on a short week," McKay said of the Thursday night game. "These two teams will be fighting for the [early] division lead, and the Packers may get back some offensive and defensive weapons they didn’t have vs. New Orleans."

In addition to Packers +2, McKay said he’s got three 6-point teasers — two teams on each — tied to Green Bay: Packers +7.5/Ravens +8.5 (at Browns); Packers +7.5/Titans +8.5 (vs. Bengals); Packers +7.5/Seahawks +7.5 (at Giants). 

Back To School

OK, let’s jump into the college football Week 5 odds market, starting with a couple key SEC games.

Two-time defending national champion Georgia remains atop the rankings. But the Bulldogs haven’t been particularly impressive so far this season. On Sunday night, BetMGM opened Georgia -16.5 at Auburn. By Monday morning, Georgia was down to -14.5.

"A lot of sharp money coming in on the Tigers here. It seems like the market is not a big believer in Carson Beck at QB," Drucker said, alluding to the Georgia starter. "It will be interesting to see how the money shakes out, if the public comes back on Georgia."

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In a game with a much shorter point spread, No. 13 LSU is a 2.5-point favorite at Ole Miss.

"Not a ton of action on the spread so far," Drucker said. "But we have seen some sharp money come in on the Over, and the total has risen 5 points as a result."

The LSU-Mississippi total opened at 62.5, reached 65.5 by Monday night and hit 67.5 Wednesday evening.

No. 11 Notre Dame, coming off a home loss to Ohio State, travels to No. 17 Duke. Bettors are looking for a bounce-back from the Irish as 5.5-point road favorites.

"It seems like the sharps and public are aligned on Notre Dame, as that’s where all the money has come in so far," Drucker said. "We’ll definitely be rooting for the Blue Devils come Saturday."

At 9 p.m. ET Friday night on FS1, No. 10 Utah visits No. 19 Oregon State. The Beavers opened -1.5 and are up to -3.5 at BetMGM, but that could change if Utah QB Cameron Rising finally returns from a torn ACL suffered in last season’s Rose Bowl.

"Not a ton of action here so far. But it seems like we will be rooting for Utah come Friday," Drucker said.

More Sharp Side

Paul Stone, a Texas-based handicapper and college football betting expert, likes a game involving two teams in his home state. Texas Tech is off to a 1-3 start, both on the field and against the spread. Plus, starting QB Tyler Shough suffered a broken fibula and is out six to eight weeks.

But Stone likes the Red Raiders — even with backup QB Behren Morton — at home against Big 12 newcomer Houston

"Morton started four games last year and is a talented player in his own right," Stone said. "All of the Red Raiders' defeats have come down to the final seconds, and I see them taking their frustrations out on a below-average Houston team which lost at Rice in Week 2."

Indeed, Rice won that matchup 43-41 in double overtime, with Houston a 7-point favorite.

NFL Rocks on FOX

FOX Sports has a couple of notable matchups on the Sunday NFL docket. In the 1 p.m. ET window, the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders.

Fanatics Sportsbook opened the Eagles -7 and has stretched to Eagles -8.5.

"We took sharp action Tuesday morning on Eagles -7," Fargis said of wagering that pushed Fanatics to -7.5 on the way to -8.5.

At 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX, the Dallas Cowboys — coming off a humbling loss at Arizona — host the New England Patriots.

"The Cowboys are a touchdown favorite at home. Eighty-seven percent of moneyline bets are on the Cowboys. The book will need the Patriots to pull the upset," Fargis said.

Moneyline bettors are on Dallas despite having to lay -290, meaning it takes a $29 bet to win $10, for a $39 total payout.

In another notable Sunday game, Joe Burrow will definitely be on the field when the Cincinnati Bengals meet the Tennessee Titans. Fanatics opened the Bengals -1.5 and briefly got to -2.5 Wednesday afternoon, before falling back to Cincy -2.

"Fairly balanced action here so far. A small preference for the Bengals to cover -2.5," Fargis said.

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

There’s not much in the way of major wagers that have landed yet on college football Week 5 or NFL Week 4. Those bets are certainly coming, though.

In the meantime, a couple of leftovers from NFL Week 3’s Monday Night Football double-dip, at BetMGM:

• $55,000 Eagles-Buccaneers Under 45. That was relatively sweat-free, with Philly winning 25-11. Bettor profits $50,000, for a $105,000 total payout.
• $110,000 Rams-Bengals Over 43.5. Another low-scoring game, which Cincinnati won 19-16. So the house won this wager.

Then we’ve got the roughest losing bet of the week, from that Eagles-Bucs tilt. Reported by Ben Fawkes, on BetRivers’ Yes/No prop bet of whether there would be a safety, a customer put $24,000 on No.

And No was a massive favorite of -2500. Seemingly a slam dunk, though the win would’ve only been worth $900. Instead, it was a $24,000 loss, as the Eagles forced a Bucs safety late in the third quarter.

As we learn every week, there are no slam dunks in the NFL. Just ask the Dallas Cowboys. Enjoy this weekend’s games!

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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Patrick Everson